Novo, Lilly, and the $252bn Wake-Up Call: Lessons in Pharma Valuation, Political Risk, and Market Psychology

  • Author:
    Geoff Robinson
  • Level: 
    Intermediate to advanced
  • Study time:
    5 minutes
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Course overview
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have lost $252bn in market value this year, erasing years of hype around obesity treatments. Novo is down 49%, Lilly 11%, as disappointing trial results, competitive copycats, and Trump’s threats of drug price cuts crushed investor enthusiasm. Since peak valuations, the two firms have shed over $617bn—equivalent to the entire value of Hermès. This video unpacks the lessons: why disciplined DCF modeling matters in pharma, how political risk must be explicitly modeled, and how behavioral finance helps explain narrative-driven extremes. For analysts, it’s a live classroom in valuation, politics, and psychology.

What's included?

  • 1  video
  • A $252bn lesson in valuation discipline, political risk, and market psychology
  • Insights from a #1 ranked data-driven analyst

Who should watch this playlist? 

This video is for investment analysts, portfolio managers, and students of finance who want to understand how hype-driven sectors can implode. If you analyze pharma, technology, or any industry prone to narrative momentum, this case study of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will sharpen your valuation discipline, risk assessment, and behavioral insight.

Why TheInvestmentAnalyst.com?

We are the only training house that is able to bring top-ranked analyst experience into your classroom. We buck the trend. Most training businesses recruit junior ex-bankers to become their trainer. Our instructors cut their teeth teaching and then gain senior experience with investment banks.

We believe, you could not be in better hands.

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Geoff Robinson
FCA FMVA MFM

Thought leader, instructor, writer, financial influencer, Former UBS Managing Director and 8x #1 ranked analysts EMEA Institutional Investor Survey
ABOUT Geoff
Geoff has had a varied career. He was a Managing Director within UBS Equity Research, leading their Global Fundamental Analytics franchise. During this time, he was #1, ranked 9x in the EMEA Institutional Investor Survey. Before UBS, he was a material equity investor and LBO co-investor in two market exited training consultancies. Geoff has a passion for learning and is well-known for his ability to break down complex subject matter and distil it to an audience in a digestible and engaging manner. He brings this passion to TheInvestmentAnalyst.com. 
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