How should Bayesian forecasting fit into the investment process?*

  • Author:
    Geoff Robinson
  • Level:
    Intermediate to Advanced
  • Study time:
    Always adding content
Write your awesome label here.

Also available on our Premium Plus subscription plan

Course overview
In the evolving landscape of investment analysis, incorporating a Bayesian forecasting approach offers a dynamic framework that adapts to new information, allowing analysts to update their beliefs and models in a principled manner. This iterative process, rooted in Bayes' theorem, facilitates a continuous refinement of forecasts, as it quantitatively incorporates both prior knowledge and new evidence.

By leveraging the Bayesian mindset, investment analysts gain a robust tool for managing uncertainty, as they can explicitly account for the probabilistic nature of market behaviors and outcomes. Consequently, Bayesian forecasting does not merely predict future events but provides a structured way to calibrate confidence in these predictions, which can be particularly valuable in the investment process where decisions are often made under conditions of uncertainty.

The Bayesian approach thus empowers analysts with a nuanced understanding of risk and reward, enabling more informed and responsive investment strategies.

What's included?

  • Fundamental research written by Geoff Robinson
  • Analyst-curated insights
  • Embedded podcasts
  • Embedded videos
  • Downloadable models, where applicable

Who should read this?

This research note is tailored for investment professionals, financial analysts, portfolio managers, risk managers, and quantitative researchers who aim to improve their predictive capabilities and investment strategies. It will also benefit anyone involved in financial decision-making or interested in the application of advanced statistical methods to finance, including hedge fund analysts, asset allocators, and sophisticated individual investors looking to deepen their understanding of Bayesian methods in the context of market analysis.


We are the only training house that is able to bring top-ranked analyst experience into your classroom. We buck the trend. Most training businesses recruit junior ex-bankers to become their trainer. Our instructors cut their teeth teaching and then gain senior experience with investment banks.
We believe, you could not be in better hands.

Geoff Robinson FCA FMVA MFM

Thought leader, instructor, writer, financial influencer, Former UBS Managing Director and 8x #1 ranked analysts EMEA Institutional Investor Survey
Geoff has had a varied career. He was a Managing Director within UBS Equity Research, leading their Global Fundamental Analytics franchise. During this time, he was #1, ranked 8x in the EMEA Institutional Investor Survey. Before UBS, he was a material equity investor and LBO co-investor in two market exited training consultancies. Geoff has a passion for learning and is well-known for his ability to break down complex subject matter and distil it to an audience in a digestible and engaging manner. He brings this passion to