Offer Price Arbitrage: How Merger Arbitrage Investors Analyze Implied Probability

  • Author:
    Geoff Robinson
  • Level: 
    Intermediate to advanced
  • Study time:
    2-3 hours
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Course overview
Merger arbitrage isn’t just a niche hedge fund strategy—it’s a powerful tool for understanding market psychology and deal risk. This essay breaks down how arbitrage investors use the spread between market price and offer price to infer the implied probability of deal success.

We explore how expected value models, break price estimates, and implied probability curves help decode antitrust fears, financing doubts, and geopolitical risks. Through real-world case studies like Microsoft-Activision and Illumina-Grail, we demonstrate how merger spreads signal market expectations—and why every investment analyst should pay attention.

What's included?

  • 1 video
  • When a company offers $95 and the market trades at $72, the spread is telling you something—learn how to listen like an arbitrageur.
  • Insights from a #1 ranked data-driven analyst

Who should watch this playlist? 

This video playlist is valuable for finance and accounting professionals, including analysts, accountants, auditors, CFOs, investment bankers, and portfolio managers. It provides them with a deep understanding of the accounting treatment and valuation of convertible debt, which is crucial for financial reporting, investment analysis, and decision-making. Additionally, students in accounting, finance, or business programs will find these videos highly relevant to their studies, as convertible debt is a key topic in corporate finance curricula.

Why TheInvestmentAnalyst.com?

We are the only training house that is able to bring top-ranked analyst experience into your classroom. We buck the trend. Most training businesses recruit junior ex-bankers to become their trainer. Our instructors cut their teeth teaching and then gain senior experience with investment banks.

We believe, you could not be in better hands.

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Geoff Robinson
FCA FMVA MFM

Thought leader, instructor, writer, financial influencer, Former UBS Managing Director and 8x #1 ranked analysts EMEA Institutional Investor Survey
ABOUT Geoff
Geoff has had a varied career. He was a Managing Director within UBS Equity Research, leading their Global Fundamental Analytics franchise. During this time, he was #1, ranked 10x in the EMEA Institutional Investor Survey. Before UBS, he was a material equity investor and LBO co-investor in two market exited training consultancies. Geoff has a passion for learning and is well-known for his ability to break down complex subject matter and distil it to an audience in a digestible and engaging manner. He brings this passion to TheInvestmentAnalyst.com. 
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