Quantifying Uncertainty: The New Rules of Investment Thinking
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Author:
Geoff Robinson -
Level:
Intermediate to advanced -
Study time:
5 minutes
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Course overview
This playlist explores how cognitive bias, flawed probability intuition, and statistical oversights lead to poor investment decisions—and how to correct them. Covering themes from base rate neglect to payoff asymmetry and fat tail risk, the series introduces probabilistic frameworks that help investors reframe uncertainty as a strategic edge.
Key concepts include the Kelly Criterion, fat-tailed distributions, expected value distortions, and the importance of edge over certainty. Ideal for analysts and decision-makers seeking a deeper, more resilient understanding of risk, this series will sharpen your thinking and arm you with tools to navigate randomness, rare events, and misleading signals.
Key concepts include the Kelly Criterion, fat-tailed distributions, expected value distortions, and the importance of edge over certainty. Ideal for analysts and decision-makers seeking a deeper, more resilient understanding of risk, this series will sharpen your thinking and arm you with tools to navigate randomness, rare events, and misleading signals.
What's included?
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7 video
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Where others see randomness, great investors see edge—this playlist shows you how to think like them.
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Insights from a #1 ranked data-driven analyst
Who should watch this playlist?
Ideal for investment analysts, portfolio managers, and finance students, this playlist is for anyone seeking to sharpen their risk perception, think probabilistically, and avoid costly mental traps in decision-making. If you are prepared to replace intuition with a statistical advantage, this playlist is your starting point.
Why TheInvestmentAnalyst.com?
We are the only training house that is able to bring top-ranked analyst experience into your classroom. We buck the trend. Most training businesses recruit junior ex-bankers to become their trainer. Our instructors cut their teeth teaching and then gain senior experience with investment banks.
We believe, you could not be in better hands.
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Geoff Robinson
FCA FMVA MFM
Thought leader, instructor, writer, financial influencer, Former UBS Managing Director and 8x #1 ranked analysts EMEA Institutional Investor Survey
ABOUT Geoff
Geoff has had a varied career. He was a Managing Director within UBS Equity Research, leading their Global Fundamental Analytics franchise. During this time, he was #1, ranked 10x in the EMEA Institutional Investor Survey. Before UBS, he was a material equity investor and LBO co-investor in two market exited training consultancies. Geoff has a passion for learning and is well-known for his ability to break down complex subject matter and distil it to an audience in a digestible and engaging manner. He brings this passion to TheInvestmentAnalyst.com.