Using Sigmoid fade curves to
forecast low viz cashflows

  • Author:
    Geoff Robinson
  • Level:
    Intermediate to Advanced
  • Study time:
    Always adding content
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Course overview
In the realm of financial analysis, forecasting the cash flows of entities undergoing significant change or aggressive expansion presents a unique conundrum, where traditional linear projection methods grapple with unpredictability and opaque financial horizons.

Our research note titled "Using Sigmoid Fade Curves to Forecast Low Viz Cashflows" delves into the adaptation of the sigmoid curve as an innovative tool in addressing this issue. Recognizing the sigmoid curve's propensity to encapsulate the natural progression of growth - this paper explores its application as a more nuanced and potentially accurate model for predicting the cash flow trajectories of disruptive enterprises, high-growth organizations, and the complex financial synergies post-mergers and acquisitions.

By embracing the inherent stages of development that the sigmoid function elegantly captures, financial analysts may unearth a fresh perspective for gauging the future financial streams in situations where traditional methods fall short.

What's included?

  • Fundamental research written by Geoff Robinson
  • Analyst-curated insights
  • Embedded podcasts
  • Embedded videos
  • Downloadable models, where applicable

Who should read this?

This research note is particularly valuable for financial analysts, investment managers, and corporate strategists who face the challenge of forecasting in uncertain and dynamic business environments, such as start-ups or companies post-M&A. Academics and finance students will also find the application of sigmoid curves for cash flow forecasting a significant departure from traditional models. It is designed for those seeking more sophisticated tools to predict the financial outcomes of businesses with complex growth patterns and limited cash flow visibility.


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Geoff Robinson FCA FMVA MFM

Thought leader, instructor, writer, financial influencer, Former UBS Managing Director and 8x #1 ranked analysts EMEA Institutional Investor Survey
Geoff has had a varied career. He was a Managing Director within UBS Equity Research, leading their Global Fundamental Analytics franchise. During this time, he was #1, ranked 8x in the EMEA Institutional Investor Survey. Before UBS, he was a material equity investor and LBO co-investor in two market exited training consultancies. Geoff has a passion for learning and is well-known for his ability to break down complex subject matter and distil it to an audience in a digestible and engaging manner. He brings this passion to