When the Market Sees the Storm Coming—And Still Gets Soaked: Why Analysts Struggle to Model the Downside

  • Author:
    Geoff Robinson
  • Level: 
    Intermediate to advanced
  • Study time:
    5 minutes
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Course overview
This video analyzes the April 2025 Trump tariff shock to explore why markets often misprice obvious risks. It dissects structural, cognitive, and methodological reasons analysts fail to model aggressive downside scenarios or sentiment-driven reactions, and calls for richer, reflexive frameworks that better capture the complexities of modern financial markets.

What's included?

  • 1  video
  • Even when the market sees the blow coming, it rarely ducks—because downside modelling still struggles with sentiment, incentives, and fear.
  • Insights from a #1 ranked data-driven analyst

Who should watch this playlist? 

This video is for professional and aspiring investment analysts, strategists, and portfolio managers looking to understand why markets misprice well-telegraphed events. Using the 2025 Trump tariffs as a case study, it offers a critical lens on downside modelling failures and how to better account for sentiment and policy risk.

Why TheInvestmentAnalyst.com?

We are the only training house that is able to bring top-ranked analyst experience into your classroom. We buck the trend. Most training businesses recruit junior ex-bankers to become their trainer. Our instructors cut their teeth teaching and then gain senior experience with investment banks.

We believe, you could not be in better hands.

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Geoff Robinson
FCA FMVA MFM

Thought leader, instructor, writer, financial influencer, Former UBS Managing Director and 8x #1 ranked analysts EMEA Institutional Investor Survey
ABOUT Geoff
Geoff has had a varied career. He was a Managing Director within UBS Equity Research, leading their Global Fundamental Analytics franchise. During this time, he was #1, ranked 9x in the EMEA Institutional Investor Survey. Before UBS, he was a material equity investor and LBO co-investor in two market exited training consultancies. Geoff has a passion for learning and is well-known for his ability to break down complex subject matter and distil it to an audience in a digestible and engaging manner. He brings this passion to TheInvestmentAnalyst.com. 
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