Why Private Equity's 2025 Revival Died
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Author:
Geoff Robinson -
Level:
Intermediate to advanced -
Study time:
5 minutes
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Course overview
At the start of 2025, the private equity industry anticipated a revival under Trump’s second term. But that optimism evaporated after abrupt tariff announcements sparked market uncertainty, cutting deal flow, paralyzing exits, and triggering a fundraising freeze.
Using data from Bain & Co. and insights from top firms, this essay explores how geopolitical risk and policy volatility can disrupt capital recycling, damage valuation confidence, and force a shift toward narrow, tariff-resilient sectors. For analysts, the takeaway is clear: the future of deal modeling must account for policy shocks as central inputs, not peripheral risks.
Using data from Bain & Co. and insights from top firms, this essay explores how geopolitical risk and policy volatility can disrupt capital recycling, damage valuation confidence, and force a shift toward narrow, tariff-resilient sectors. For analysts, the takeaway is clear: the future of deal modeling must account for policy shocks as central inputs, not peripheral risks.
What's included?
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1 video
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How Trump’s tariff policy turned a private equity boom into a valuation bust.
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Insights from a #1 ranked data-driven analyst
Who should watch this playlist?
This video is essential viewing for corporate development teams, M&A lawyers, and investment banking professionals who regularly structure and negotiate acquisition deals. It's particularly valuable for junior team members who need to understand how protective provisions safeguard target companies during the sensitive phases of deal negotiations. While the concepts are relevant to anyone involved in M&A transactions, the video's focused treatment of PUSU deadlines will be most immediately applicable to professionals working in jurisdictions like the UK where these provisions are commonly employed in public company acquisitions.
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Geoff Robinson
FCA FMVA MFM
Thought leader, instructor, writer, financial influencer, Former UBS Managing Director and 8x #1 ranked analysts EMEA Institutional Investor Survey
ABOUT Geoff
Geoff has had a varied career. He was a Managing Director within UBS Equity Research, leading their Global Fundamental Analytics franchise. During this time, he was #1, ranked 9x in the EMEA Institutional Investor Survey. Before UBS, he was a material equity investor and LBO co-investor in two market exited training consultancies. Geoff has a passion for learning and is well-known for his ability to break down complex subject matter and distil it to an audience in a digestible and engaging manner. He brings this passion to TheInvestmentAnalyst.com.